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Real Estate Investing with Keith Weinhold
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Is US Residential Real Estate Underpriced or Overpriced?
• 38 minIs real estate cheap, adequately valued, or overpriced? I explore. Everything considered includes: inflation-adjusted price, affordability, quality, and other nations’ prices. Stadium trends are affecting urban real estate. More plan to move outside of downtowns. I divide society into four groups of people. Then I discuss who is harmed by inflation and who benefits most: 1: The poor—lose 2: Paid-off homeowners—hedge 3: Mortgaged homeowners—hedge and profit 4: Mortgaged income property owners—hedge, profit, and increase income Learn how to talk to your tenant so that they never think “How the Rent Stole Christmas”. It’ll help ensure timely rent payments. Many tenants don’t understand that you have a mortgage to pay. Finally, I reveal the exact percentage number that indicates GRE’s 2024 National Home Price Appreciation Forecast. Timestamps: Real Estate Valuation and Gold Ratio (00:02:53) Explains the concept of using the home price to gold ratio as a measure of real estate value and compares it to the long-term average. Global House Prices (00:05:28) Discusses how US home prices are comparatively cheaper than those in other developed nations, such as Australia and Canada. Impact of Quality on Real Estate Value (00:06:40) Highlights the increase in home size, amenities, and safety features over time, suggesting that today's homes offer more value at a potentially lower inflation-adjusted price compared to the past. The trend of sports complexes with casinos (00:12:15) The speaker discusses the trend of building sports complexes with casinos, mentioning examples such as Mark Cuban's plan for a new Mavs arena and the proposed entertainment complex and casino next to Citi Field. The necessity of a second job due to inflation (00:13:36) The speaker explains why inflation makes a second job necessary, emphasizing the importance of investing money at a rate higher than inflation to maintain prosperity and quality of life. The four groups and their relationship with inflation (00:14:46) The speaker categorizes four groups of people based on their ownership of property and how they are affected by inflation, highlighting the benefits and disadvantages each group experiences. The Landlord-Tenant Relationship (00:24:22) Discussion on maintaining open lines of communication with tenants and addressing misconceptions about landlords being greedy. Explaining Property Expenses (00:25:37) Informing tenants about the various expenses that landlords have to cover, such as mortgage, insurance, taxes, and maintenance. Forecasting Home Price Appreciation (00:29:04) Discussing past predictions and forecasts for future home price appreciation, including insights from various agencies and factors influencing prices such as housing supply and interest rates. Home price appreciation forecast (00:35:22) Keith Weinhold discusses his forecast for home price appreciation for the next year, which he predicts to be 4%. Investment decisions based on forecast (00:36:51) Keith Weinhold mentions that people are increasingly making investment decisions based on forecasts, but reminds listeners that forecasts are not guarantees. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/481 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith’s personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Today is real estate underpriced, adequately priced or overpriced? All outline a hierarchy of winners and losers with inflation in real estate. How the rent stole Christmas. Then the verdict is in as I reveal GRE’s 2024 home price appreciation forecast all today on Get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of hours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text grey to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. Speaker 1 (00:01:18) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Day dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text grey to 66866. Text grey 266866. Speaker 2 (00:01:35) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. Speaker 1 (00:01:51) - Welcome to GRE! From North Pole, New York, to North Pole, Alaska, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich Education on Christmas. Happy holidays. Today is real estate cheap? Adequately valued or overpriced? Well, to many it doesn't feel like a relative bargain today, when you see how much housing prices and payments have escalated these past three years. There are a lot of ways to approach the question about whether today's U.S. real estate is cheap, adequately priced, or overpriced, so let's approach them. But when you ponder that question, didn't dollars quickly come to mind? Well, the median home price is $431,000 today, depending on how you slice it. Let's not be quick to forget that when you're looking for a measuring stick to determine the value of real estate or anything, dollars are an exceedingly poor way to track value. Speaker 1 (00:02:53) - Because also, starting about three years ago, their slow, steady debasement turned into a rapid debasement and dilution of purchasing power. Dollars keep getting so relentlessly debased that, well, of course, it would take substantially more of those dollars to buy most anything today than it did three years ago. Property included. And this is precisely why the car that you own today costs more dollars than your grandparents first home did. Okay, so let's cancel out dollars. For 5000 years, gold has had enduring value. It's been a loose barometer for inflation all that time. As the dollar goes down, it takes more of them to buy the same amount of gold. So rather than pricing the home in dollars, wouldn't it make more sense to use the home price to gold ratio? Yeah, that is just what it sounds like. Instead of comparing home prices to dollars, compare it to how many ounces of gold it takes to buy a home and track that over time. Well, we find out that today it only takes about half as many ounces of gold to buy a home today as the long term average. Speaker 1 (00:04:12) - And that's dating all the way back to the year 1889, yet just half as many. Yeah, that is a data set in the past 130 plus years, when you take the long term average of how many ounces of gold it takes to buy a median single family home, realize how special this comparison is. You now see the value of two of the most popular real assets relative to each other. All right, so home prices now appear low since it takes just 50% as much gold to buy a home today. But isn't that measure right there in itself enough evidence to say that real estate is under priced? No, that's certainly not. But it is one powerful touch point. We need more than that. Consider global house prices. So much of the world is a renter nation compared to the US, because home prices are substantially higher in other developed nations, from Australia to Canada, Canadian home prices are still nearly double the price of the same US home. This is a second powerful measure that US home prices are cheap here in the middle of the 2020s decade. Speaker 1 (00:05:28) - Well, let's add some more. Consider affordability. Can people afford homes? Well, there is wage growth, which often lags home price growth in, you know, your wage growth. It often lags inflation until the latter part of an inflationary cycle like where we could be now. But let's look at what really happens. Most people don't buy property based on its price as much as its monthly payment. It's the affordability of that payment that most people are looking at. Today's mortgage rates, though, they don't feel low because of where we were a few years ago. Like I mentioned here on the show before, mortgage rates are still below their long run average of 7.7%. This is another important measure of how real estate prices in America today are not overpriced. But what I'm going to do now is turn the prism in another direction here so that the sunlight strikes it differently. Let's shine the light somewhere else, because we still have not adjusted for something extremely important. When you're valuing real estate or anything for that matter. Speaker 1 (00:06:40) - Let's look at the attribute of quality. Yes, we need to adjust for quality since 1889. And. An ounce of gold is just still that same ounce of gold. Its physical properties have not changed one bit since the year 1889, which is one reason why it's a good measuring stick and why I brought it up earlier. But in 1889, let's look at real estate. It
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